Why it might be riskier to attack Iran than to capture Maduro
The United States might be drawn into a conflict that lasts for a long time due to Iran’s extensive military capabilities and network of regional proxies. When President Trump stated in January that the United States was sending an “armada” to Iran, he compared it to the force used in the military’s most recent lightning strike in Venezuela, stating that it was “able to quickly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence.”
Now, as Mr. Experts warn that an attack on Iran would be significantly more complex than an operation in Venezuela and could potentially draw the United States into a prolonged conflict. While Trump weighs various options against the Iranian government, including limited strikes, Iran’s leadership is in charge of a network of regional proxy forces and extensive military capabilities that could support a resistance.
And in contrast to the swift operation in the capital of Venezuela, Caracas, Mr. Without stating publicly what it is that he wants to accomplish, Trump may be thinking about taking a larger-scale military action.
However, he has stated that regime change would be “the best thing” that could occur and that he wants to stop Iran from building a nuclear weapon. According to Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, a group that focuses on finding solutions to conflicts, “there is no low-cost, easy, and clean military option available in the case of Iran.”
“There is a real risk that American lives will be lost,” Mr. Vaez stated, adding that this will be a significant part of Mr. Trump’s reasoning, “particularly in an election year.” Iran can respond. Iran has one of the largest and most diverse missile stockpiles in the Middle East, according to regional experts, in contrast to Venezuela’s skies, which were relatively unprotected prior to the January attack by the United States.
Drones and anti-ship weapons are part of its arsenal, but Iran’s missile stockpile is still unknown due to its 12-day war with Israel in June. With a range of over 1,200 miles, Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles can reach American bases in western Turkey and throughout the Middle East, including Israel and the Gulf States. On Saturday, Iranian state media reported that Iran had, for the first time, tested a sea-based air-defense missile with a range of over 93 miles during military drills this past week in the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, Tehran’s strategy is to “rapidly escalate and export instability in multiple theaters so that the cost and pain are spread.” Any American military strike may provoke retaliation from the Gulf States, which are home to numerous American bases. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two close allies of the United States, declared in January that they would not allow the United States to use their airspace for attacks.
Experts assert that this stance may not ultimately protect them from Iranian retaliation. Israel’s major cities could be hit by a counterattack launched by Iran. During the June conflict, the Israeli military shot down the majority of Iran’s missiles using interceptors. But after more than two years of fighting off attacks from Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, its supply of interceptors is running out, according to intelligence officials.
According to Vakil, Iranian officials probably thought that the “fear factor” of a larger regional war would deter Mr. Trump has stopped attacking. U.S. forces and allies could be put in danger by Iran’s proxies. In the Middle East, Iran uses proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon to operate an “axis of resistance.” In order to challenge adversaries in the region and expand its influence, it has constructed and armed those groups.
Even though many of the proxies have been greatly diminished, they may retaliate against American forces and allies, establishing multiple fronts and escalating the conflict beyond Iran’s borders. If the United States attacks, at least one Iran-aligned group in Iraq has pledged support for Tehran, and its leaders have warned that they may order “martyrdom operations” as part of a larger conflict.
Additionally, experts assert that the Houthis may resume their support for Hamas during its conflict with Israel in late 2023 by targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Mr. stated that the Iranian-backed organizations “know it would be better off hanging together rather than hanging separately.” The International Crisis Group’s Vaez.
“They are all alone if the mother ship sinks.” The leadership of Iran is deeply rooted. The supreme leader is the primary authority in Iran’s theocratic government. That is enforced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a powerful and feared branch of the armed forces with approximately 150,000 members who protect and advance the authoritarian agenda of the regime. In a tightly coordinated raid that lasted just over two hours, the United States of America was able to capture President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Venezuela.
However, removing the supreme leader is not as straightforward as removing the government in Iran. Iran’s real power is determined by ideology, bolstered by political extremists, and reinforced by a complicated power structure that has been in place for nearly half a century.
Ms. Vakil stated, “If the goal is decapitation,” “a copy-paste operation of Venezuela might be harder to achieve.” It is still unknown whether Delcy Rodrguez, also known as Mr. U.S. officials could collaborate with Maduro’s vice president and the current interim leader of Venezuela in the event that the supreme leader were to be removed from power. Also, the Persian Gulf is about 400 miles away from Tehran.
Experts say that, in comparison to the operation in Caracas, which is approximately 10 miles from the Caribbean Sea, this would make it harder for American forces to directly reach Iranian leaders and capture them. The financial consequences would be widespread. One of the world’s most important energy shipping lanes would be choked off if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran has previously threatened to do.
The channel is used to transport about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. According to Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence at Vortexa, a company that monitors oil and energy trade, any disruption in the strait would cause energy prices to soar. Some experts believe that Iranian forces’ recent live drills in the strait are a sign that the 90-mile waterway could be closed in the event of war. Iran would also suffer as a result of the channel’s closure because it would limit its ability to export oil to major markets like China. Mr. said, “It will be like bringing the roof down on its head.” Vaez stated
